Assumptions, contradictions, and questions

Important assumptions

IDAssumptionStatusWhy it matters
ASM-1The documents represent an intended operating modelProvisionalOtherwise G-1 is only an illustrative goal
ASM-2Candidate causes describe present practiceProvisionalOtherwise the CRT is a risk map, not current reality
ASM-3Awareness is not the current constraintProvisionalCould reverse the next experimental focus
ASM-4Conversion failures materially limit adoptionProvisionalCentral to RC-1
ASM-8Model trust must precede accepted throughputInferredOrders IO-1 before IO-2
ASM-11Missing architecture causes missing next stepsProvisionalConnects RC-1 to UDE-4
ASM-12Missing next steps cause practice drop-offProvisionalConnects UDE-4 to UDE-1
ASM-19Scale and depth cannot be integratedProvisionalThe cloud dissolves if false
ASM-21Mixed methods improve decisions without becoming the goalProvisionalControls metric risk
ASM-22Consent-based staging improves entry without reducing trustProvisionalControls funnel risk
ASM-24Apprenticeship distributes leadership while preserving qualityProvisionalSupports INJ-5
ASM-25Dense supported interaction stabilizes new cultureProvisionalSupports INJ-6
ASM-26Mature documentation enables founder-independent adoptionProvisionalSupports INJ-7

The full assumption registry is in ltp-model.yaml.

Contradictions

  1. The CRT names a likely constraint but also says its UDEs and arrows need lived validation.
  2. The documents already articulate throughput, yet describe lack of an accepted operational definition as a root cause.
  3. The CRT conclusion foregrounds throughput and conversion, while the PRT orders governance and model validation first.
  4. The PRT says a Transition Tree is next, but no source Transition Tree was supplied.

These are productive distinctions when expressed as authored hypothesis versus group-accepted operational reality.

Questions most capable of changing the model

  1. Do actual participants accept G-1 and the system boundary?
  2. Which UDEs are observed now, and what traces support them?
  3. Is RC-1 tighter than governance, facilitator capacity, trust, funding, or demand?
  4. What duration and evidence makes an adoption event durable?
  5. Who has standing and authority to revise the trees?
  6. What protected floors—safety, consent, pluralism, non-extraction—must throughput never override?
  7. What has the group already tried, and what happened?

Categories of Legitimate Reservation

  • Clarity: define “wiser,” “weller,” “durable,” “pocket,” and “adoption.”
  • Entity existence: verify every UDE against lived evidence.
  • Causality existence: test whether missing next steps cause drop-off.
  • Cause insufficiency: represent facilitator, trust, resource, and external causes.
  • Additional cause: search for participant constraints outside program design.
  • Cause-effect reversal: test whether strong pockets create conversion rather than only result from it.
  • Predicted effect: pre-register what should change after each transition.
  • Tautology: avoid defining “successful transformation” as whatever the program produces.
  • Boundary: distinguish one group’s throughput from civilization-level change.

Coverage gaps

  • No interviews, decisions, logs, cohorts, adoption traces, or institutional cases.
  • No external whitepapers referenced by the source documents.
  • No owners, calendar, resources, or safeguarding specification.
  • No real throughput periods.
  • No authored Transition Tree.
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