Future Reality Tree

Purpose

Test whether the proposed operating-system injections could turn resonance into durable adoption and identify consequences that must be trimmed.

Entities

Injections

INJ-0 — Govern the trees with stewardship and revision.
INJ-1 — Build reach around protected practice pockets.
INJ-2 — Define mixed-method durable-adoption throughput.
INJ-3 — Build a transparent, consent-based staged conversion architecture.
INJ-4 — Install a practice-action-learning and constraint-review cadence.
INJ-5 — Create graduated stewardship.
INJ-6 — Build dense, outward-facing pocket/sangha containers.
INJ-7 — Create a maturity-rated, adaptable replication library.

Desirable effects

DE-1 — Transformation is distinguished from visible activity.
DE-2 — More people sustain embodied practice.
DE-3 — Leadership capacity grows.
DE-4 — Stable outward-facing pockets form.
DE-5 — Mature practices become independently reproducible.
DE-6 — Verified durable adoption increases.

Logical connections

INJ-0 + INJ-2 + INJ-4 → DE-1
INJ-3                  → DE-2
INJ-5                  → DE-3
INJ-6                  → DE-4
INJ-7                  → DE-5

DE-1 → DE-2 → DE-3 → DE-4 → DE-5 → DE-6 → G-1

The chain is contributory, not claimed sufficient. Each arrow depends on explicit assumptions in ltp-model.yaml.

Evidence

EVD-7–EVD-11 provide the injections, intended effects, and negative branches.

Assumptions

ASM-20–ASM-26. The decisive uncertainties are whether pathway design changes practice entry, whether apprenticeship distributes quality leadership, and whether pockets generate portable learning.

Negative-branch analysis

NBR-1 — Metrics become reductive

INJ-2 → counted adoption events dominate attention
→ subtle inner and relational change is neglected

Trim: mixed quantitative and qualitative evidence, peer discernment, stories, and periodic wisdom review. Treat the metric as a decision aid, not the goal.

NBR-2 — Conversion becomes manipulative

INJ-3 → people feel recruited or funneled
→ trust falls

Trim: informed choice at each stage, no-pressure invitations, explicit commitments and rights, easy pause/exit, and observation of declines as valid evidence.

Additional preserved branches

Layered participation can create status hierarchy. Trim with responsibility-not-worth norms and accountable criteria.
Dense pockets can become insular. Trim with outward service and sangha relationships.
Replication can scale shallow copies. Trim with maturity ratings and adaptation principles.

Confidence

Medium. The logic is coherent and risk-aware, but no injection has implementation evidence in the supplied scope.

Open reservations

Which injection set is minimally sufficient?
Could model governance slow action without improving decisions?
What protected floors constrain throughput optimization?
Which effects are observable within one learning cycle?

Diagram

flowchart TB
  I0["INJ-0 Governed model"] --> DE1["DE-1 Meaningful progress visible"]
  I2["INJ-2 Mixed-method throughput"] --> DE1
  I4["INJ-4 Learning cadence"] --> DE1
  I3["INJ-3 Consent-based pathway"] --> DE2["DE-2 Sustained practitioners"]
  I5["INJ-5 Stewardship"] --> DE3["DE-3 Leadership capacity"]
  I6["INJ-6 Dense outward pockets"] --> DE4["DE-4 Stable pockets"]
  I7["INJ-7 Maturity-rated library"] --> DE5["DE-5 Reproducible patterns"]
  DE1 --> DE2 --> DE3 --> DE4 --> DE5 --> DE6["DE-6 Durable adoption increases"] --> G1["G-1"]
  I2 -. may cause .-> N1["NBR-1 Reductive metrics"]
  I3 -. may cause .-> N2["NBR-2 Manipulative funnel"]

Cross-tree references

INJ-0–INJ-7 address RC-0–RC-3 and the UDE chain. IO-1–IO-7 provide their prerequisites. ACT-1–ACT-4 begin testing the first four.